Speaking Sensis

The latest Sensis® Business Index recorded the third successive quarter of growth in confidence amongst Australia’s small and medium businesses.  Report author Christena Singh takes us through the key results and some of the challenges facing SMEs and the economy going forward.

It was really encouraging to see the Sensis® Business Index record the third successive quarter of growth in confidence amongst Australian small businesses.  SME confidence has now risen by some 40 percentage points in the past three quarters, to a net balance of 52 per cent.

And while the continued increase in confidence and performance is good news, it is important to realise that we are still only partly down the path of economic recovery.  If you look at the indicators compared to their long term averages, you can see that while confidence is now four percentage points above its long term average, all performance indicators are still tracking below their long term average levels.

For example, as you can see in the attached chart, the sales performance indicator is some four percentage points lower, profitability five percentage points lower and capital expenditure nine percentage points lower.  The indicator that is closest to its long term average is employment, which is only one percentage point lower.

And all of these indicators with the exception of capital expenditure have risen in the past quarter.  So Australian SMEs have made good progress on the path to economic recovery but there is still some way to go.

And this is perhaps emphasised by the fact that SMEs are expecting conditions to moderate over the next quarter to some extent, with more thinking that the Australian economy will be weaker in a year’s time.  While many SMEs are still facing challenges such as reduced demand and cash flow, others are already facing the “problems” of economic growth, including difficulties finding staff.

Six months ago the Australian economy had to face the challenges of economic downturn.  We have seen the Australian economy and Australia’s small and medium business meet this challenge.  But in many ways the challenges of economic recovery will be more complex, with the need to tackle both the problems of growth and decline at the same time.  This will be the challenge the Australian economy will face for the year ahead.